Halving · Guide

The 2028 Bitcoin halving: what it means for your miner

Some time around spring 2028, every Bitcoin miner's revenue will be cut roughly in half overnight. If you're buying a machine now, that date sits inside your payback window.

Updated 8 Nov 20266 min readBy Tallyhashs

What happens at the halving

Bitcoin's issuance is fixed in its code. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the new-coin subsidy paid to miners halves. That's how the 21 million cap is reached. Nobody votes on it and nobody can schedule it; it triggers at a block height.

When exactly?

Blocks don't arrive on a clock. Difficulty keeps the average near ten minutes, but the real pace drifts: in early November 2026, blocks were averaging about 10.6 minutes. With 74,895 blocks to go on 8 November 2026, a ten-minute pace lands in April 2028, and the slower recent pace pushes it into May 2028. The live countdown above recalculates every minute.

What it does to mining revenue

Miners earn the subsidy plus transaction fees. Over the 144 blocks up to #975,105, fees were just 0.8% of the total, so the subsidy is almost all of the revenue. Halve it and, at the same price and difficulty, hashprice falls from $0.0318 to roughly $0.0160 per TH/s per day.

Your electricity bill doesn't halve. That's the whole problem: every machine's margin gets squeezed from one side, and the least efficient ones go underwater.

Which machines stay profitable

Break-even power price is the most a machine can pay for electricity before it loses money. Here it is before and after the halving at November 2026 price and difficulty:

Break-even in $/kWh after a 2% pool fee, covering electricity only. Assumes Bitcoin's price and difficulty stay at 8 November 2026 levels, which they won't. See how hashprice works.

What tends to happen next

Three forces pull in different directions after a halving:

• Difficulty can fall. When older machines switch off, the network adjusts difficulty down and the survivors' share of each block grows. That partly offsets the cut for efficient machines.
• Fees can matter more. With a smaller subsidy, a busy fee market makes up a bigger share of revenue.
• Price is the wildcard. In past cycles the price has sometimes risen in the months after a halving. That's history, not a rule, and nobody can promise it will happen again.

A halving checklist before you buy a miner

• Does it pay back before the halving? If not at today's numbers, you're betting on price or falling difficulty.
• Is it efficient enough? At 15 J/TH or better, a machine has a real chance of running through the halving on good power.
• Is your power cheap enough? Under about $0.045/kWh all-in keeps a 13.5 J/TH machine above water at today's price after the halving.
• Can it pause on bad days? Curtailing when revenue is below the power cost saves real money in thin-margin periods.
• Will you hold or sell what you mine? Mining is effectively a leveraged long-bitcoin position. Decide your plan up front.

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